Re*Move

"If I'd asked people what they wanted, they'd have said a faster horse." *

* Henry Ford - upon the introduction of the Model T

Dan Sturges is a transport visionary. For twenty years he’s foreseen and been tackling some of the transport-related problems the rest of the world is only just starting to grapple with. Sturges isn’t anti-car. He is simply pro shaking up mobility full stop, and believes that far from just moving people in to electric cars, we need to introduce people to a variety of vehicles - ones that are the right size for each journey they make.

A couple of months back, I chatted to him over skype about his current thoughts on his company Intrago, the future of mobility, and what the auto industry is up to. You can see an edited highlight of that video below, and then after the jump I’ve pulled out and discussed what I think are the key points he made.

Mad Men won't save Ford

I'm sitting here tonight trying to make sense of Ford's belief that the Fiesta Movement campaign is an example of the kind of social media that will translate into a successful Ford.

Here's a picture of what it's all about. A video by Parris Harris and Yoga Army, aka Phashion Army.

Fiesta Movement is getting quite the PR push at Ford right now and it'll only get worse as the December LA show draws near, when the Fiesta is actually launched in the US. What's the product? A car that Ford designed in Europe several years ago and launched there in autumn 2008. It hasn't even gone on sale yet in the US - it'll be a 2011 model year car.

This quote from an awesome Clay Shirky article earlier this year (about newspapers but don't worry about that) says why this is flawed, better than I ever can:

"Revolutions create a curious inversion of perception. In ordinary times, people who do no more than describe the world around them are seen as pragmatists, while those who imagine fabulous alternative futures are viewed as radicals. The last couple of decades haven’'t been ordinary, however. Inside the papers, the pragmatists were the ones simply looking out the window and noticing that the real world was increasingly resembling the unthinkable scenario. These people were treated as if they were barking mad. Meanwhile the people spinning visions of popular walled gardens and enthusiastic micropayment adoption, visions unsupported by reality, were regarded not as charlatans but saviors.

When reality is labeled unthinkable, it creates a kind of sickness in an industry. Leadership becomes faith-based, while employees who have the temerity to suggest that what seems to be happening is in fact happening are herded into Innovation Departments, where they can be ignored en masse. This shunting aside of the realists in favor of the fabulists has different effects on different industries at different times. One of the effects on the newspapers is that many of their most passionate defenders are unable, even now, to plan for a world in which the industry they knew is visibly going away."

The reality is that this is what's happening right now in much of the car industry. And I fear it's happening in Ford, too.

Fiesta Movement is an ad campaign - nothing more. The philosophy that ever more "sophisticated" marketing can solve problems. Web-savvy, video-producing creative people will transform Ford's brand image and reconnect it with a new generation. Meanwhile Ford, despite thinking it's had a terrible year, has had a lucky one. Both of its major US competitors have gone into bankruptcy. General Motors and Chrysler are probably fatally wounded.

Let's talk about real stuff - well electric cars, which aren't real yet, but will be soon. Even in a world short on EVs and high on rhetoric, Ford's current global 'electric' product range is weak - the company has one star car - the fantastic Fusion Hybrid - and a scattering of dated Escape and Mariner SUVs. The next generation? Ford has been hanging on the fence about which suppliers to use for a Focus EV – and unless there's a big surprise, we're still in limbo on that and much else as Ford insists the numbers don't add up. We're so, so far, from the car Ford really should build - an electric F150 truck. Parris and Yoga talk about Ford reconnecting with the American psyche. But Americans, beyond a few areas on East and West coasts, don't want small cars. Most of them don't even want cars. They want trucks.

But the guys who design trucks are seemingly sitting elsewhere right now, watching a football game. So cars is the only place where innovation is happening. As GM and Chrysler fade away, Ford's key competition in that zone is now global. And be in no doubt that the global competition is about to become truly formidable. Renault Nissan has the boldest strategy of all - we were there to see Renault blow everyone away at Frankfurt in September, with bold plans for four production pure-electric cars by 2011, and Nissan is deadly serious about its mainstream, mass-market Leaf, due in 2011, and undoubtedly the first global car that will shake the Prius out the tree it's got right now all to itself.

And that's just the start. Volkswagen is doing intriguing things with very efficient diesel vehicles, BMW's Efficient Dynamics strategy makes Ford's new EcoBoost petrol engines look pretty conservative. And that's before we talk about Honda, Toyota or anyone else.

I can't help but think that Ford will default to present Renault Nissan as the crazy radicals, imagining an unrealistic future. When the reality is Renault Nissan are the pragmatists, because they and others have the pieces in place to push ahead. They've forged partnerships with entire countries to roll out electric cars, while Ford is trialing 15 electric Focuses in Hillingdon in North London, and in patches around the US.

Right now Ford is not a global car company. It is a multinational car company - in fact the granddad of multinationals - with different product, management and marketing teams on different continents. And it thinks it can treat customers in different places in different ways. Imagine if Apple did that, fobbing off its American customers with a social media campaign, to launch a product it introduced in Europe over 12 months earlier. Advertising guys, dressing up social media as big change, would get nowhere. Customers would see through it right away.

"Imagine if Apple did that, fobbing off its American customers with a social media campaign, to launch a product it introduced in Europe over 12 months earlier."

Unless we get something better - unless we get genuinely great marketing - Ford faces slow decline. It's a long time since the ad guys alone could create a winning product.

Mark Charmer is founder of the Movement Design Bureau. Related reading:

The future of cars. Please? (December 2007)

Three New Shapes for Ford (April 2009)

Sue Cischke meet Dan Sturges. (April 2009)

Drew Smith on the car industry's failure to "do digital". (May 2009)

Fast charging EV batteries and the future of the fuel station

We're heading down a road where large numbers of cars will be powered by batteries in the future. Aside from the cost of batteries (dropping fast), the main reason for consumers to hesitate about jumping into an electric vehicle (EV) in the next few years, is range anxiety. We are not suddenly going to develop cars with batteries in them which will cover 500 miles on a charge, so how are we going to cover longer distance journeys?

The auto industry is (sensibly) proposing a solution which meets the average driver's needs about 95% of the time. You'll be able to drop the kids at school, get to work, and then home again via the shops all on one overnight charge, which you'll do either at or outside your home. But for road trips and non-average commuters, a host of new partner firms (and industries) claim to have a solution to the range problem. Best know of these is BetterPlace - who are developing an electric car charging network in several countries, and who will provide roadside swap stations in Israel and Japan within a couple of years, where you drive in and a depleted battery will be swapped - within two minutes - for a fully charged one.

But there's another solution which falls between the standard eight hour overnight charge, and the battery swap solution. It's known as the "fast charge" and it's a term which is being bandied about with increasing frippery. We've seen a section of the emerging EV industry (both start ups and established auto OEMs) change their tune about this. Back in 2007, no one had an answer to the problem of how to juice up the car's battery quickly if you ran out while on the go. Yet just two years later, here's the stock answer:

Burning Rubber - What future for cars?

As we hurtle towards this December's Copenhagen summit, there's almighty global momentum building around how seriously to tackle climate change. And in the end, whatever anyone might say, drastically reducing CO2 emissions implies drastically reducing energy consumption.

I'll be in Bath on Friday, that great Roman and Georgian spa city and powerhouse of British engineering, to talk at a Low Carbon Southwest event on a fairly contentious topic - cars.

It's been organised with Greenbang and the University of Bath. Joe and I have already been doing research for Greenbang - here's Ford's Nancy Gioia talking mass market electric vehicle with us in Detroit back in April.

We'll be exploring what meeting the energy reduction challenge in the car economy really involves. The event quotes the total number of new cars on the road as having risen by 17 per cent in the last decade.

But let me set this out more vividly, with numbers from the Worldwatch Institute:

The world vehicle fleet is estimated to be 622 million. In 2007, 71 million cars were produced, made up of 52.1 million cars and 18.9 million light trucks. In 2000 (remember, Millennium bug, parties, not long ago huh?) the fleet was 500 million. That's a 24% rise in just 7 years. Oh, and in 1950 the entire global vehicle fleet was just 53 million.

So when does the number of vehicles in the world saturate the market? Well it's already happened in key western markets. Yet the car industry still sees the answer as being to plough on and return to sales growth. Every big auto maker (there aren't any others) needs to see growth of at least 2% per year to survive in their current form. Who'd want to be in auto sales right now?

The first question is can this growth be sustained at the big picture level - can people move around with more and more vehicles on roads, while overall energy consumption from auto manufacturing, distribution and daily use gently falls, if we move to cleaner fuels and engines? The second question is what happens if sales growth isn't sustainable - if car sales are about to tip into permanent structural sales decline?

I'm going to focus on the latter and explain how it wouldn't be such bad news - great alternative stuff can replace those lost sales - vehicles we can use more, not less. Services that let us swing between modes of transport in ways we just can't today visualise. All this is possible with existing technology. And it can all be designed in a way that lowers overall energy consumption dramatically.

Of course, there's a third alternative. Moderately more efficient vehicles, gradual decline in auto industry, which adapts more slowly than society and its customers. Occasional death of car makers. No change. That's the one we need to try to avoid.

There's more details on the event here. It's free if you're a company researching low carbon stuff, if you're a designer or engineer or you are involved in low carbon startups.

The event runs from 9.30am to 12.30pm on Friday 2nd October at The Guildhall, Bath BA1 5AW.

Posted by Mark Charmer on 29th September 2009

Frankfurt in four minutes - IAA 2009 review video

Frankfurt auto show is so huge that, even having spent three days there, it's hard to cover everything that's in the halls of the Messe. So here's a fairly personalised view of the 2009 Frankfurt auto show, edited into just four minutes. There are things in here that will doubtless seem strange to you, and there are plenty of interesting things missing - simply becasue I didn't get time to video them, but hopefully you'll enjoy and get a flavour of what it was like to be there. Note, if you click through and run this in Youtube, you can watch it in HD too.

Just in case you watched it and are intrigued as to what certain things are, then in rough order from the top that was:

BMW's Vision Efficient Dynamics concept, The Mercedes Gullwing (nee SLS), the original Smart concept from 1994, Aston's Rapide, Ford of Europe's CEO John Fleming, Renault Nissan CEO Carlos Gohsn, the Renault Twizy, Joe Paluska of Better Place, Better Place's battery swap system, Mini's (loud) birthday celebrations, details of various cars  and concepts - BMW, Citroen, Renault, Aston, the fold away seat in the Ford Grand C-Max, Mark getting annoyed at being filmed, Stefan Lamm - Ford of Europe's exterior design director, talking about touch screen HMI influences, BMW's touch screen concept Apps store, the HMI in the Hyundai iX Metro concept, and finally Drew Smith enjoying saving the environment...

More video and thoughts from Frankfurt are on their way. Check back soon...

Posted by Joseph Simpson on 18th September 2009

Images of Frankfurt

I spent just one day at the 2009 Frankfurt Auto Show and barely covered more than a couple of halls. But here's the stuff I saw that interested me. Click on the collage below or here.

Press day. Frankfurt Auto Show. 15 September 2009.

Posted by Mark Charmer. Mark is managing director of The Movement Design Bureau.

John Fleming - CEO Ford of Europe, talks technology & EVs

Watch John Fleming - Ford's CEO intoduce the company's green technology plans at the IAA in Frankfurt. Like nearly every other major car maker, Ford was focusing on green - as you can see, this is what they opened the show with.

The headline stories were a battery electric version of the European Focus - once again, using a powertrain built by Magna (the ones who just bought Opel and Vauxhall off GM). Then there was the unveiling of EcoBoost - in 1.6l, and 2.0l four cylinder format. EcoBoost is a new design of petrol engine that gives more grunt with less cylinders and cc. We saw and drove the V6 version in the Lincoln MKS and Ford Flex recently. Finally, there was a fitter, sharper Focus Econetic, featuring technology like stop-start, bringing the CO2 down to 99g/km.

It says a lot about the pace of movement in the car industry right now that what might have been an impressive set of annoucements just six months or a year ago, seems comparatively pedestrian when held up against other manufacturers at the show. Most German firms have gone "stop-start", with smart alternators and low-rolling resistance tyres to boot, some time ago. And shortly after the end of this press conference, Renault pretty much hung their corporate future on the electric "Z.E." (zero emission) vehicle - unveiling four concepts, and saying it was committed, in a very big way, to the technology. 

Follow us in Frankfurt - IAA 2009 on Re*Move

The Re*Move team decamps to Frankfurt this week, as we’re covering the International Auto show (IAA) which starts tomorrow. So that you don’t have to blister your feet, we’ll be trudging round the messe’s vast halls – covering the important announcement and vehicle launches, asking the tricky questions and generally shoving cameras where others tend not to shove them.

Primarily, we’re there as part of our ongoing work with Ford – and we’ll be looking closely to see whether there’s been any progress with Ford’s electrification strategy. We’ll also be closely examining the new C-Max, a European c-segment MPV, but one which signifies the look of the new Focus family, a car which will be launched in all of Ford’s major markets including North America.

Ford Grand C-Max images leaked out last week...previews direction of world Focus

Elsewhere, we’re itching to find out what Renault’s four (yes, four) EVs look and feel like, and will be paying particularly close attention to the tiniest member of the quartet you see in this plan-view picture. Has La Regie seen the value in the personal-mobility future city market? And is it going after BMW’s project i and Toyota’s i-Series vehicles? We’ll find out.

Renault's four EVs for Frankfurt, from the top. We're most interested in the far left...

Sticking with the Renault connection, we’ll also be talking to the team from Better Place to find out how their electric car-charging network and battery swap-station plans are progressing. We’re also keen to learn more about BMW’s Vision Efficient Dynamics concept. It’s important because it’s positioning green technology, and green branding as a flagship idea which is synonymous with premium. BMW’s efficient dynamics programme has impressed us in the past, but it’s decision to make Project I vehicles a premium sell, and its recently launched ‘Joy’ brand campaign have left us flat. Where does Vision ED fit in?

Aside from that, we’re keen to field questions from the watching world. If there’s anything that’s bugging you in terms of news coming from the show, anyone you want us to try and grab, or something you’re particularly interested in, get in touch – and we’ll do our best to cover it.

Don’t forget all Re*Move material is creative commons licensed, so you can reuse and incorporate our words, photos and videos in your own publications. And if you want the intravenous feed of info, follow our twitter streams - @JoeSimpson and @Charmermrk (we’d also recommend @Drewpasmith, @carnorama, @ericgallina and @skymotoring if you’re watching on twitter), and we’re using the hashtag #IAATweetup along the way on twitter, and for our alternative designer/after show party on Tuesday night, which - we should point out - if you're in town, you don't need a VIP invite to get in to.... Here on Re*Move, all the material will be tagged Frankfurt. So sit back, stay tuned, and do feel free to comment or connect and ask us about what's going on. Tshuss!

Posted by Joseph Simpson on 14th September 2009, Frankfurt Messe picture - Mattingham on Flickr, Ford C-max - Ford, Renault EV - Renault (via autoblog)

Driving the Tesla Roadster Sport... at 120mph

Joe in the Tesla Roadster Sport at Millbrook after lapping the high speed bowl

I'll get the disappointments out of the way first. There is no video to accompany this blog. So you'll have to make do with my words and your mind's eye. And yes, when you thrap the knackers off a Tesla Roadster (to coin a colloquial Yorkshire term - ed), then the quoted 225 mile-odd range probably isn't achievable  - as Jeremy Clarkson was so keen to point out when he tested it on Top Gear last year. Yet to dismiss what Tesla has achieved with the Roadster, and specifically the new, faster Roadster Sport version I drove yesterday, is to do the company an absolutely huge disservice.

Words struggle to describe what happens when you plant your right foot in this car. In a 'normal' sports car - let's say a Porsche 911 - when you flatten the gas pedal from low revs, the car takes a moment to build a sense of acceleration, before screaming towards a red line of - typically - 7000 rpm. You then change up a gear, the sense of acceleration diminishes slightly, and the process starts again in the next gear. It's terrific fun, addictive, but the noise - from the engine - is central to the experience.

So in comparison, you'd expect an electric car - with no engine noise, and only a single gear speed - to feel perhaps anodyne, unexciting, and maybe uninvolving. But the reality is different. Very different. Setting out from Millbrook proving ground's central area, I pick my way silently between other cars, exhibits and people unaware of the Tesla's stealthy, silent presence behind them (apparently, it being bright yellow isn't enough for them to notice me). Already though, I can feel the sporting intent - the tiny steering wheel, heavy, feel-some, unassisted steering.

Navigating the roundabout on the way out onto the proving ground, I squeeze the throttle pedal perhaps a quarter of an inch, and the Tesla rockets round, limpet like, feeling like a heavier, planted Lotus Elise (which isn't exactly a surprise). Then we turn onto the access road to Millbrook's famous high speed bowl. Built by GM in the 60s, this is a high speed proving circuit. Two-miles long, it is banked, fiercely, across its 5 lanes. As we round the corner to join the bowl, a familiar, British speed limit sign appears. But it causes me to do a double take. Instead of the usual 40 or 50, the number in the red circle says '130'. If only you saw that every time you joined the M1...

View Larger Map

Google maps aerial view of the Millbrook proving ground.

Not knowing how many other cars will be on the circuit, I approach things gingerly, just slightly squeezing the throttle to join the track. We're doing about 30mph. Audra from Tesla, who's sitting to my right, glances over her shoulder, turns to me and says "you can just go, plant it".

So I do... Foot to the floor. And even though I've driven a number of electric cars now, and even though I reckon I've read nearly every road-test of the Tesla Roadster, I'm still unprepared for what happens next. It feels like we've been hit from behind by a silent express train. One which has no intention of stopping. We're positively flung forwards - 40mph, 50mph, 60mph, 70mph... the numbers coming up on the speedometer faster than you can read them. I let out a stupid laugh, and glance across at Audra who's now grinning wildly. "Wow" I say. And we're not slowing down. The acceleration rate hasn't let up, I haven't changed gear. We're just pilling on speed as if we're attached to a manic bungee chord which is intent on 'twanging' us towards the horizon, with all its might. This is the roadster sport, after all. It does 0-60 in 3.7 seconds...

By now I'm up in the fourth highest lane of the banked bowl, the car tilted at perhaps 15,20 percent against the horizontal. But looking down at the speedo, I'm doing 95mph, and the notional 'speed limit' in this lane is 80mph, so with a big deep breath, I squeeze the throttle once more, and gradually slip out into the fifth - and highest - lane of the banked bowl. I'm scared. In the top lane, all you see to your right is a crash barrier, and then the sky above it. You're pitched at a crazy angle against the flat horizontal, very aware that your passenger is sitting much higher up than you are because of the tilt of the car. A thought flashes through my mind - "god she's brave - putting her life in my hands (and feet)". The manic whine of the electric motor is being drowned out by the noise of the wind as we cut through the air at nearly two miles per minute. Such is the angle of the banking, and the forces that they generate, legend has it that at 100 mph in this top lane, you can take your hands off the steering wheel, and the car will simply continue to stay where it is, circling the bowl.

Snatching a glance at the speedo shows we're doing 120mph now though, so I think better of taking my hands off the wheel, and then a thought briefly flashes through my head - "what if we had a tyre blow out, what if I let go of the wheel... we'd be gonners, what would people say to my fiance if they found me in pieces amongst a mangled yellow sports car on the other side of the car barrier?" I quickly banish the thought from my mind, but it's enough to make me back off the accelerator, and filter into the next lane down. I take a moment to savour what I've just done. As a gearhead, circling the Millbrook bowl in the top lane has always been on my "things to do before I die" list, and I've just ticked it off. In an electric car. The weirdness of that thought distracts me from the fact that I've just overtaken a new Saab 9-5, still covered in disguises and camouflage tape. And then I think "sod it", and mash the throttle pedal again. And this is all you need to know about the Tesla Roadster: it feels like it's accelerating as fast at 80mph as it is at 30mph. And it's addictive. So much so that I complete another couple of laps. Who said the future wasn't going to be fun? What a car.

Posted by Joseph Simpson on 11th September 2009. Joe was attending LCV2009 at Millbrook proving ground, on 09th and 10th September.

Driving an electric vehicle (EV) - what's it like?

Right now, the vehicle revolution looks set to be electric, but very few people have driven an EV to date. So to dispel a few myths about electric vehicles being about as quick as a milkfloat, or as attractive as a noddy car, we though we'd use our recent experience in the Smith Electric / Ford Transit Connect BEV to tell you what driving an electric car (well, van-based car) of the future might be like.

Starting up

Getting in to Smith’s demonstrator Ford Transit Connect EV is just like stepping into a regular Transit Connect. It looks like any automatic transmission vehicle. There are two pedals and a centrally mounted gearshift, with park, drive and reverse ratios. It’s when you turn the key in the ignition that things get different. Instead of the churn of a starter motor and the flare of revs as an internal combustion engine bursts into life, what you’re instead greeted with is a barely perceptible whining noise, as the car’s 12volt system powers up, and the diagnostics run a check on the traction batteries. Once that’s done and they’re powered up, you hear a ‘pop’ noise as the connectors kick in, signalling the vehicle’s ready.

Moving off

From there, it’s simply a matter of slipping the gearshift into drive, and then silently, eerily, moving away. The lack of sound is – quite unsurprisingly – the thing that takes most getting used to. If you’ve ever sat in a car being pushed or towed with its engine off, the first few yards you cover driving an EV will feel familiar. Your brain, used to the gentle rise of revs from an internal combustion engine, struggles to comprehend that you’re moving without sound. Video:

Accelerating and on the move

Moving away from rest is a doddle. Simply press the accelerator, as you would in an automatic car and the van hurries away from the line with no fuss. Electric motors produce nearly all of their torque from zero rpm, which means good acceleration at low speed, and instead of the rise and fall in acceleration rates (and engine noise) you’re used to from an internal combustion engine, there’s simply a constant, linear accelerative force – as if a giant elastic band has been attached to the front of the van, and is hauling you toward the horizon.

One thing that's worth noting is that you do become more aware of other vehicular noises - from the tyres, wind, and interior of the vehicle. We wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of work going into the next generation of electric vehicles to really try and muffle or eliminate some of this other ambient sound, as we suspect that if - say - the interior developed a creak or rattle in your electric car, it'd really draw attention to itself and prove to be much more noticeable and annoying than in today's internal combustion vehicles. Nontheless, the lack of motor noise makes this whole experience feel, as Vinay suggests from the back seat, “a little star trek” – the van has only one gear ratio, which means you just don’t feel the same sense of acceleration. So it comes as a surprise to look down and find you’re doing 60 miles per hour. This thing is not slow. Video:

Braking

The most noticable driving difference in the Transit Connect EV over a regular car or van is the regenerative braking system. Prius and other hybrid drivers will already be familiar with such systems, which capture energy when a vehicle is slowing down, and feed it back into the battery. The Transit Connect EV has the most aggressively set up type of this system I’ve yet driven – and if you’re clever and read the road ahead, it means you’ll rarely need to touch the brakes. Simply lift your foot off the accelerator, and the vehicle begins to slow – quite quickly – to the extent that, when exiting a motorway at 65mph, the van had brought itself to a stop at the end of the off-ramp, without me touching the brake pedal at all. Video:

Our view

If you’re British and of a certain age, your perception of what an electric vehicle will be like is probably rooted around the milk float – the ancient morning delivery vehicle with a top speed of around 15 miles per hour. Smith Electric, Ford’s partner on this project, actually used to build those vehicles as far back as 80 years ago, but the Transit Connect EV bears so little resemblance to such a device that the method of propulsion almost ought to be given a different name. Both are electric vehicles, but comparing the two is like comparing Issigonis’s original Mini with a contemporary Porsche.

The most complementary thing we can say about the Transit Connect BEV is that it drives at least as well as its internal combustion counterpart, and in many regards it’s better. It easily keeps up with traffic. The lack of drivetrain shunt, engine noise, and not needing to change gear significantly reduces the load on the driver – meaning they’re free to concentrate on the road. Smith report that fatigue and strain levels in drivers of its EVs are significantly lower than in equivalent internal combustion powered vehicles. Critically, in the small delivery vehicle market, this should lead to safer, more aware drivers, who have fewer accidents. The proof of that particular pudding will be in the eating, when these vehicles go on sale in the US next year. But Smith report that of the drivers on its existing fleets who’ve made the jump from gasoline to electric drive, not one now wants to switch back to an internal combustion engine. From a group of drivers who are notoriously hard to please, that’s the best endorsement going.

Posted by Joseph Simpson on 2nd September 2009.

The Movement Design Bureau team visit Smith Electric's production facility in Washington, Tyne & Wear, UK on 17th August 2009. Thanks to Dan Jenkins and everyone at Smith for being so accommodating and patient. Disclosure: Ford is sponsoring The Movement Design Bureau's design and research work in 2009