Re*Move

Shai Agassi - a new star flies into the frame

by Mark Charmer.

So Shai Agassi's Project Better Place has managed to pull it off. It somehow seemed really cool that Shai catapulted into DLD in Munich yesterday straight from Jerusalem, where he had launched one of the most curious deals the auto industry has ever seen.

On Monday he announced, alongside Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Renault / Nissan's CEO Carlos Ghosn a spectacular and audacious agreement to deploy a new kind of electric power network and set of cars to run on them that will get Israel's car drivers off oil as quickly as possible. The deal represents consistent delivery on his previous announcement at the end of October, when he raised $200 million from Israeli Corp and VantagePoint Venture Partners.

Shai and I spent thirty minutes talking yesterday in Munich and I was impressed. On stage, Agassi is a brilliant presenter, dashing, focused, witty and strident. He's up there with Al Gore in getting you by the throat and implying "talking about this isn't enough!" and stood shoulders above many of those who the overly crushed and seat-deprived attendees of Burda Media's DLD event had seen. Which is saying something when you see their line up (he still wasn't as cool as Oliviero Toscani though - more on him tomorrow).

Project Better Place will integrate and deploy a new product, sales and support channel (read 'charging' stations) that will allow Israeli consumers to drive their own pure electric (not hybrid) car that has a 200km or so range. It will feature a unique design of battery that can be swapped in and out in about the time it takes right now to fill up a car with gasoline. People will be able to do so at a country-wide network of swapping stations, or charge cars via power points. The cars will be designed and built by Renault / Nissan (likely at first to be the next Logan three box plus perhaps a small city car that seems to be in the air). Agassi reckons it could reduce oil use in Israel drastically - we're talking figures like 50 per cent here.

The capital to get this going has come from a group of investors that includes Israeli Corporation (which right now supplies Israel with oil - proving, as with Abu Dhabi's latest moves - that oil money can sometimes turn green) and also features VantagePoint Venture Partners, blessed right now with this shining star to distract everyone from the mess at Tesla. Agassi claims the system will launch within four years.

One of the big features of the system is that electric power will be sold as packages akin to the way that mobile phones are sold today - there will be multiple plans you can buy, including one that says if you buy about six years of power, they'll throw in the car for free.

Agassi has all the arguments worked out for why swappable electric batteries are the best solution for electric cars, and why a full charge range of about 200km is the best solution to deliver for commuters. "When car companies said the battery swap couldn't be done quickly enough, I pointed to their Formula One teams and said 'Seven Seconds' - whenever a race car rolls into a pitstop their guys can change almost anything in seven seconds."

Why walk when you can jump?

But can he really pull it off? Agassi has got to this situation incredibly quickly. When I ask how in a year he has managed to leave his old job and do one of the most audacious deals imaginable he says "Nine months! It's been nine months!"

In truth, for any entrepreneurs out there who may suddenly feel deeply inadequate, Agassi has had this process in train for three years. The journey started when he listened to a challenge by a speaker at Davos to do something to make the world a better place. Agassi admits that during those first few years "I walked every single wrong path first. I was sure for months hydrogen, then I was sure it would be ethanol."

This characteristic of Agassi's seems crucial to understand. You feel he's churned the options over in his head constantly and worked out the answer. Now he's settled on it, his purpose is to set that vision out to the world, do the necessary business deals to make it happen and then...".  Actually, "and then?" is a fairly good question and there isn't right now a lot of substance to see, beyond the deal itself. Be in no doubt that Project Better Place now needs to 'execute', as IT guys would say. They'll need some very talented people, they'll need to ensure that Renault / Nissan and other partners such as battery provider NEC deliver technologies, and integrate those technologies together, on time. They will also need to work out the details of the service model and sales and marketing, factors that could make or break the project. And of course if oil prices fall dramatically (admittedly unlikely) the economics become a problem.

So is the man up for it? The company website is today a lonely place, with a link to 'leadership' that leads to... just Agassi. Yet while Agassi himself quipped on stage to the (German) DLD audience that he "used to be the next CEO of SAP", he never was SAP's CEO and opinions gathered from my Twittering IT analyst friends vary on just how successful his time at that firm was.

First, here's Dennis Howlett, a top technology and financial software analyst:

"Shai created a roadmap and at one stage was delivering a ton of product [at SAP]. "But it became indigestible for many SAPpers."

Then over to James Governor at Monkchips:

"The Agassi legacy at SAP?.... a job unfinished. He built an architecture, but it was not as widely adopted as he, or the board, wanted." James's other comment is curious. "Shai evidently doesn't have a great deal of patience and is inclined to hector communities (for example, customers) that don't do what he wants."

What next? Well Project Better Place has a hell of a lot to do and, once Davos is over, Agassi better get together a brilliant team and start executing. Right now, you hear nothing except him. While the project talks about partnership and being open, it would seem that the big deal has for now taken priority over engaging the talent base required. The firm will need a lot of great people, and those partnerships will take a lot of managing.

What's sure is that the world is a better place for this development. Among the visionaries and future talk underway at DLD, Agassi stood out as a doer.

But don't for a minute think this is the only future for cars. Agassi's vision has unlocked anything up to a billion dollars but there is surely more to come and many things are happening right now. Agassi is a visionary but his vision is pretty narrow. In the next article I analyse why this is both good and bad.

Shai's in Davos now, wooing the great and mighty with his vision and his audacity. For the next three years he'll definitely be judged on that ability to 'execute'. We wish him well.

Read on with Is Project Better Place the big answer?
 

 

Mark Charmer is director of The Movement Design Bureau, a think tank.

Related reading:
Re*Move: The Future of Cars Please?
Re*Move: What Shai Agassi could do next

Kleiner Perkins Invests in Fisker's Plug-in hybrid

By Joe Simpson.

Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers - one of the big silicon valley venture capitalists, is reportedly investing in Fisker Automotive, who are developing a plug-in hybrid. Henrik Fisker is the man credited as designer of the BMW Z8, and more recently, the most beautiful (according to many) cars in the world, in the form of the Aston Martin DB9 and Vantage.

At the NAIAS currently taking place in Detroit, Fisker officially unveiled the 'Karma' hybrid - a sporting four-door saloon whose design has strong shades of BMW, but which will work in a similar manner to the Chevy Volt - and reportedly cost around $80,000. Read the story at Cnet news here.

See the Karma Gallery here.

Images: Karma - Fisker Automotive

Posted by Joseph Simpson on 15th January 2008

Meanwhile, not in Bali...

Windturbines in northern France. (Taken from a TGV train - hence the slightly blurred nature of photo!)

Depending on who - and what - you read, the result of last week's events in Bali were either a monumentally historic breakthrough - because America in principal agreed that it might be time to act on climate change; or were monumentally disappointing - because there is no real road map, or widespread agreement on what agreements and targets should be made for cutting carbon emissions in the future. But as if to remind everyone that individual nations will charge ahead on their own, and that Britain intends to be right at the front of the line when it comes to cutting cabron emissions, today reports suggest that Britain will shortly unveil a plan to build enough wind turbines (7000) around the country to supply it's entire home electricity requirements by 2020.

Whether they can see it through - and in the stated timescale - remains to be seen. Particularly given Britain's convoluted planning processes, long appeal procedures, guerrilla protesters and a growing group of well meaning, but ultimately misguided protectionists intent on safeguarding the beauty and 'unspolit' nature of Britain's countryside and coastline at all costs.

What I'm interested in, and will shortly be exploring in more detail on these pages - is whether any of the spare power that these turbines will surely generate, could be used to magnify their impact, by being used to charge a network of electric, battery powered cars during low 'grid load' periods. Still, that's for another day.

But for environmentalists, and those whose focus is on blooding new, clean, technologies, this wind turbine plan can only be good news. Which might be just the tonic they're looking for in the aftermath of Bali...

More on Bali coming soon.

Related articles:
A week of climate change

Posted by Joseph Simpson on 17th December 2007

Who's kidding who?

Interesting piece on GM's fast lane blog here with the subtitle 'the gas engine's demise has been greatly exaggerated'. Surely it's no coincidence that they've written this at a time when the energy bill is still - at the time of writing - not quite through at senate level. A lot of what Dan Hancock - Vice President, GM Global powertrain engineering - says here is actually true. Certainly the whole point about the difference between fuel economy vs. fuel efficiency is a key one, which very few people seem to understand.

But then, having spent most of the last year lobbying against the energy bill, it seems a bit disingenuous for GM then to go bragging about how great they are in this area. To a European, saying you've got "...15 models that achieve 30 or more highway miles per gallon." really doesn't sound that impressive (and yes, I fully understand the different markets and vehicle types at play here.)

Posted by Joseph Simpson on 14th December 2007.

Towing the line?

A hydrogen fuel cell, yesterday.

Every so often, you hear a story that doesn't sit quite right in the context of everything else you know. This is one of those stories, and it reminded me of a tale I heard a few years ago, about an Audi executive who was rapidly removed by the Volkswagen group after making some remarks to the effect that the VW Phaeton - apple of Dr. Piech's eye - and Volkswagen's most expensive car ever, wasn't actually much cop.

Today's comments in Autocar, by VW's head of research - Dr Jurgen Leohold - is similar in a way that makes you think 'Did someone actually okay him to say that?, or is it something he's said off the cuff - contradicting the company line - and thus endangering his future prospects?' Who knows - I am thinking aloud here, but it's still a surprise to hear VW's head of research announce that he believes there to be no future for fuel cell cars - and hydrogen powered vehicles in general. It just seems a little odd coming from a company that has - up until quite recently - refused to get involved in the hybrid car market - suggesting instead that its TDi diesels were as economical in the real world - and who publicly stated that they believed the long term future to be all about hydrogen. They've even a fleet of Touran and Touareg 'HyMotion' test cars plodding around the world to prove the point. Indeed, Mark is quick to point out he drove the Touran in the states two years ago (vacuum cleaner came to mind, apparently).

Of course, the truth is much more likely to be that either VW has had an abrupt turn about in thought - which is interesting, if predictable, when talking about very new, immature technologies - or Leohold is being allowed to speak openly despite it going against the official line. Perhaps it's an example of a new-found ability to cope with free thinking, diverse opinions that the auto-sector, so long the great conservative industry, has finally begun to understand it must embrace.

Certainly it's interesting - timing-wise - to hear that VW's head of research believes the future is lithium-battery, and not hydrogen powered. Contrast it with Honda's determination to continue - and bring to market - the hydrogen fuel cell car that it announced last week - derived from the FCX concept.

Speaking to people in the auto industry, there seem to be a feeling that there's space for many different fuels and propulsion types in a future vehicle market. So does this signal the possibility of a future where we choose the type of fuel-power (petrol, diesel, biofuel, electricity, hydrogen or a combination of these) - in a way we currently choose the colour of the paint? Perhaps in the short-to-mid term, but history suggests that one technology usually comes to dominate a market. In 50 years time, might we look at the Hydrogen fuel cell vs Pure Lithium-ion power argument as analogous to that of Betamax vs VHS?

Image: GM (it's interesting to note (spookily considering my pondering above) that in a show of openness, GM no longer requires you to have a media password to access its online photos - they're available to download via a creative commons license. VW password protect theirs, and won't give me a password... go figure.)

Posted by Joseph Simpson on 6th November 2007

What Shai Agassi did next

Are we heading for a better place?!

So just what did 'Shai Agassi do next'? The Silicon Valley-based tech-expert / entrepreneur certainly seems to have been busy. Holidays in the Galapagos islands have fronted his blog for the last few months, but in the few moment's he's apparently had spare, he's raised $200M of funding for a new venture called 'Project Better Place'.

In more than just the headline grabbing financial figure, Better Place is big news, as it has the potential to turn the auto-industry upside down. Although this might at first appear to be overstating things - because Agassi doesn't seem to have a desire to build or sell cars per se - Better Place is nonetheless a bold move - with Agassi appearing to be the biggest name yet to bet that the automotive future is electrically powered. The smartest part of what he's trying to do is in undoubtedly recognising that battery range and recharge times are two of the greatest hurdles to the widespread adoption of such vehicles (EVs), so as an answer he's proposing to build a network of recharging points, and stations where electric vehicle batteries can be exchanged for freshly charged ones - in about the same time that it takes to fill a regular car up with fuel.

So why might this turn the auto industry upside down? The key idea seems to be that Better Place will own the battery, and sell you the value of the 'fuel' (electricity) in a similar manner to cellular phone contract plans. In short, they use selling you fuel to subsidise the actual cost of the vehicle. Sign up to a four year contract and the actual cost of the car is 'subsidised'; sign up for six, and the car gets thrown in for free. Although this idea has been mooted before, up until now, no one has actually set out concrete plans to do it.

Will Chevy's 2010 Volt 'plug-in' to Agassi's proposed system?

Of course, the plan is fraught with pitfalls. Springing to mind immediately is the question of whether it is possible to standardise batteries / charging ports and systems - and if so, this would seem to suggest the need for the vehicle and battery manufacturers to agree on a common system, which although obviously desirable, doesn't seem very likely anytime soon.

Perhaps a bigger, and more interesting question is whether doing things this way round can work. In the auto and auto-related industries, this type of approach has never been tried before. Ford and Chrysler mainly saw to it that the gasoline-powered car became the standard in the early part of the last century - but they built such cars before a plentiful network of fuel stations had been established. Thus 'petrol-stations', and much other auto-related infrastructure sprung up because of the popularity of the gasoline-powered automobile - when there were already hundreds of thousands on the road.

It was an idea reiterated just last week by Honda, who are proposing to sell the world's first hydrogen car. Talking about how they were not unduly worried about the lack of a hydrogen fuel network, Honda chief Takeo Fukui suggested:

“When the car was invented, countries weren’t full of petrol stations...When the demand is there it [the hydrogen economy] will happen.”

Honda's FCX hydrogen refuelling station in California

Although it is arguable that electricity is much more easily 'tansported' and 'stored' than hydrogen, it should be noted that, just like hydrogen cars, there are only a handful of plug-in electric vehicles on the market at the present time. So will there be a market for Agassi's product? That's a question we'll only be able to answer for sure in the next five, ten, fifteen years. But electric cars are coming. Toyota and GM's next generation hybrids will 'plug in', Renault, Nissan, Mitsubishi and Subaru have all said they'll build and sell a pure electric car within the next three years. Tesla's roadster is due on the roads any minute now. Perhaps more important than all this though is a sense that times are changing. There's a distinct possibility that in this case we should ignore the precedent of automotive history. Only time will tell whether Shai Agassi is right, but his venture means that things could be about to get very, very interesting.

There's much more to say - and being - said on this, so watch this space. But for now much of it has been summed up in a great article on Wired magazine's Autopia blog - read more here.

The picture below link to a Better Place youtube video, which illustrates how the system might work.

Related articles:
What Shai Agassi could do next
Time to get moving

Posted by Joseph Simpson on 1st November 2007

Images - Sunrise: Michael Dawes on Flickr via Creative commons license. Honda station: Honda. Chevy Volt: GM

Monday morning blues?

Dan keeps joking (or is he hinting?) to me that someone ought to hire the rollercoaster engineers to sort out the problems of overcrowded, unpleasant, congested city commutes. Alas he's too busy sorting out the near-term hot topic of electronic bike and light car and Segway sharing over at Intrago Mobility, to worry about that for now. I have a sneaking suspicion he's decided it's my job.

So, just because it's Monday morning, let me say he's got a point. Rollercoasters are designed for exceptional reliability, use momentum to reduce energy use - you don't get gasoline rollercoasters as far as I know - and are designed to handle very large throughputs of people, especially the getting on and off bit.

Well, just because it's Monday morning, I've done a bit of research and it would seem that the world's leaders are Bolliger & Mabillard, based in Switzerland.

Their product page is not quite your normal sort of gig.

Apparently the one above is a Sitting Coaster. Emphasis on smooth and comfortable, of course.

The Stand Up Coaster (below)is for those who prefer to stand on the way to work (or perhaps it could be adapted so you can lock a bike into it, strap yourself in and avoid the Tooting to Waterloo traffic).

I'm not really sure I'd want to travel into town on the Diving Machine, though my friend Hannah in New York was recently moaning to me about how hard it is to get across town and up to her office at Sony, and she's always been a bit racy.

My favourite bit is this line, on their FAQ:

Q: I am interested in a career in amusement ride design. What type of schooling/degree is required?

A: A master degree in structural, mechanical or electrical engineering would enable you to design a wide range of equipment, including roller coasters. Unfortunately, as the number of roller coasters built each year is rather small, job openings in this field are rare.

So basically, "We know everyone likes rollercoasters. But we don't build enough to employ many people, and we can't expand the market." Wonder how much investment would be needed to set up a new team that works with city authorities to design them into cities of the future?

Perhaps anyone interested in a career in rollercoaster ride design should contact us and we can all get together. It would certainly brighten up the commute.

Posted by Mark Charmer on 22nd October 2007.

Photo credit: Bolliger & Mabillard

Mercedes - back on top and teaming up with Tesla?

Eons ago, Mercedes-Benz (Daimler) made the best cars in the world. The most solidly built, dependable cars in the world wore the three pointed star, which is why even recently, if one fell of a plane or train in Stuttgart, it was more than likely that you’d drop into the back seat of a W124 taxi from 1988, which had 400,000km on the clock.

Mercedes cars have always been technologically ahead too - they were the first to feature Airbags, ABS and brake-by-wire systems. But in the late 90s the wheels started to come off. The company got ambitious - it bought Chrysler, which distracted it and gobbled money. More disastrously, it started to load its cars with advanced, complex electronic systems which, done at the same time as a mission to cut costs meant only one thing - quality went down the pan. By the mid-'noughties', Mercedes had in many quarters gained a reputation for build and reliability that didn't befit the brand - and the cars bombed in customer satisfaction indexes.

whoops - how not to demonstrate your collision avoidance technology in front of the world's press

But the signs are that Mercedes is back doing what it's always done best. With Chrysler finally gone, a new generation of models, such as the new C-class, have been put through the most advanced development process the company has ever conducted - and the quality once again seems high.

But it is the innovation and engineering that is of greatest interest. While Mercedes has been producing statements of intent such as the visually challenging F700 concept seen at Frankfurt, and has been at the head of research into hydrogen fuel cells, its predominant market large sedans, sports cars and SUVs means it is a likely 'loser' under the proposed rules on CO2 to be imposed by the EU in 2012. But it seems the company might have other ideas.

According to the German wirtschaftswoche, (German only) Mercedes are looking strongly at teaming up with Tesla Motors to build a series hybrid, that will use Lithium-ion batteries and, presumably, be able to run purely on electric power - in the manner of the Chevy Volt / Opel Flextreme proposed by GM.

But what really makes this announcement a big deal if it's true, is that it will give Mercedes a jump on the much trumpeted next generation hybrid cars from GM and Toyota - who both have their series hybrids slated for introduction in 2010/11. According to Thomas Weber, Head of group research and Mercedes car group development, the company hopes to have the car in production by 2009, and as if to casually hint that the Germans are still the best in the world at engineering, he also doesn't think that the batteries will pose the same technological issues so well trumpeted by GM. 

"Weber thinks the lithium ion battery is a key technology, but also one of the most challenging technical topics there is. A big challenge is the energy density in the batteries. But Weber doesn’t expect any safety issues for the system that Mercedes is developing in cooperation with Continental and the US battery producer A123..."

All of which means that things might be about to take a rather exciting twist in the race to produce real-world electric cars which have a range extending generator (which is what these serial-hybrids really are). It is an interesting development for Mercedes - who until now seem to have been betting the house on the hydrogen fuel cell. The fact that they’re suddenly very serious about electric cars suggests the technology really is there and ready - everyone else should sit up and take note.

It also indicates that Tesla's future fortune might not rest in producing their own cars (which they seem keen to suggest), but in the proprietary value of their technology, the Tesla Energy Storage (ESS) System - which they've already sold to Th!nk.

With one of Tesla's potential futures being that it might be available for sale to one of the established auto players at the right price, what chance Mercedes buying Tesla?

One thing's for sure, with quality, innovation and technology back at the top of the agenda in Stuttgart, let this be a warning to the rest of the sector, that the new Chrysler-free Daimler is back and doing what it does best: the bar is about to be raised.

Posted by Joseph Simpson on 24th September 2007 - with a seriously big helping hand from Florian Seidl who flagged up the original article in wirtschaftswoche and sorted the translation from German to English. 

Dean Kamen's next move

We've long been fans of Dean Kamen - notable inventor of the Segway. Since seeing him speak at the Designing Sustainable Mobility Summit at Art Center College of Art and Design in Pasadena last February though, we've often wondered what his next big 'contribution' to movement and design would be. It is obvious that the man is deeply passionate about the subject, and 'gets' the bigger picture. Quotes like this give you an idea as to where he stands:

"if there was ever a time when someone needed to think about the systems level approach it is now – and it has nothing to do with the car as that box, or a Boeing 777, or a Segway, because each one of those things, on its own, is a tiny part of the problem. They are mere cupholders - yet that’s what you (designers) focus on.”

So in some ways it is slightly surprising to learn what Kamen is doing next - because in one sense, it isn't about this systems level approach to movement he advocates. It is however, quite fascinating - so I suggest you go and read the article over at Green wombat...

...and we'll post a follow up to this soon.

Posted by Joseph Simpson on 6th August 2007.

Building vehicles we didn't think we could build

The Automotive X-Prize, which will run right into 2009, could eventually attract many of the people who will work out how to reinvent the automobile - as something genuinely optimised to society and the environment. You can see hints of this in the kind of comments Glenn Mercer's latest blog is picking up over on their site. AXP can help evolve a new, global network of innovators trying to build new, better stuff. If it hadn't been for the previous space-oriented Ansari X-Prize, there wouldn't now be a Virgin Galactic on the radar.

Friendly, optimistic, but realistic, the AXP team has worked hard to get out there and listen. As you can tell, we're big fans. Crucially they are attracting people who combine talent, experience and a desire to rethink the rules.

Take this comment from Carl Guichard:

"As an Engineer of twenty years for the world's largest aerospace company I can attest that the designs that we released for production were driven by far out-reaching requirements that were levied by our customers. Our customers demanded the most reliable, durable and most efficient vehicles. Vehicles that we thought we couldn't build, but we did. However, for the automotive field the customer has no mechanism to levy the requirements and this leads to the requirements for automobiles being generated internally by business management.

If we, the customer's voices were being heard for the past twenty five years and acted on, then every manufacturer would be creating highly efficient, long lasting vehicles like the AXP teams desire. Instead we are receiving what the business managers of such companies as Cerberus want, and that business goal doesn't want innovation it wants more profit.

Please also remember:"Hear one side and you will be in the dark, hear both and all will be clear." Lord Chesterfield"

Chrysler before Cerberus: 1928 was a good year for ideas. A good platform to jump from a year later, too.

While we think they could have gone further in motivating inventors to examine how the vehicles themselves interact with their environment and eachother, the timing of the Auto X-Prize is very good and its focus is solid. The auto industry has lost sense of what mobility means, social media is starting to drive organisation and prove markets exist for better stuff. At the same time the design profession is starting to find its real feet and sustainability continues to embed itself as the defining rationale of our time. New (and old) talent could well organise itself far better than Ford, GM or Chrysler has ever managed to do to reinvent the car. Perhaps Ford's current garage sale will unlock even more skills that will go on to join it.

Posted by Mark Charmer. Mark is director of The Movement Design Bureau, a global think tank.